A new study from Juniper Research, foremost experts analysing the fintech & payments market today, found that the value of payments via CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) will reach $213 billion annually by 2030; up from just $100 million in 2023.
This radical growth of over 260,000% reflects the early stage of the sector; currently limited to pilot projects.
Adoption will be driven by governments leveraging CBDCs to boost financial inclusion and increase their control over how digital payments are made.
CBDCs will improve access to digital payments, particularly in emerging economies; where mobile penetration is significantly higher than banking penetration.
A CBDC is a digital coin issued by a central bank, pegged to the country’s fiat currency (government‑issued physical money).
Domestic Payments to Account for Over 90% of CBDCs by 2030
The research found that by 2030, 92% of the total value transacted via CBDCs will be paid domestically. This reflects a change from almost 100% during the current pilot stages, as of 2023.
Since CBDCs are issued by central banks, they will be closely targeted to domestic payment challenges initially, with cross-border payments coming later, as systems become established and links are made between CBDCs used by individual countries.
Report author Nick Maynard explained: “While cross-border payments currently have high costs and slow transaction speeds, this area is not the focus of CBDC development. As CBDC adoption will be very country specific, it will be incumbent on cross-border payment networks to link schemes together; allowing the wider payments industry to benefit from CBDCs.”
High Demand Key for Full-service CBDC Platforms Providers
The research identified a lack of commercial product development around CBDCs as a key limiting factor for the current market, with few well-defined platforms for central banks to leverage.
The research recommends that prospective CBDC platform providers develop a full end-to-end solution, including wholesale capabilities, wallet provision and merchant acceptance, in order to enable the realisation of CBDCs’ potential.