Oil prices hovered under $70 a barrel this week, hemmed in by deepening anxiety over a faltering global economy and U.S. tariff policies that threaten to sap energy demand.

Traders weighed OPEC+’s tentative plan to boost production in April against a cocktail of bearish signals: sliding U.S. equities, recession whispers, and trade tensions that continue to rattle markets. While the cartel retains flexibility to pivot if oversupply looms, the specter of swelling U.S. crude inventories and weakening consumption has kept bullish bets in check.

Refiners face mixed signals as distillate and gasoline stockpiles show tentative draws, hinting at pockets of resilience even as broader demand concerns fester. Market participants remain wary of the Fed’s inflation fight and the drag of protectionist measures on industrial activity—a combination that could prolong crude’s stagnation. OPEC+ supply discipline and geopolitical flare-ups offer potential upside, but with global growth forecasts dimming, the path of least resistance leans bearish.

For now, the oil market remains a high-stakes chess match between dwindling demand signals and OPEC+’s supply-side gambits—with traders bracing for the next move.