Residential prices in Dubai saw little change in the first quarter of the year, indication that the market is at the very bottom of a years-long decline, according to a first quarter report by real estate investment firm JLL MENA.

Apartment prices saw no change at all and villas recorded only a 1% decline from the previous three months. Year over year, apartment prices have ticked up 1.1%, while villas saw a 0.6% increase, according to JLL.

Likewise, rents ticked down negligibly from in the first quarter.

“This suggests that the residential sector is currently poised close to the bottom of its cycle,” JLL wrote in the report released last week “The key question concerns the timing of any recovery.”

The report did not break out the luxury sector.

Dubai’s economy, which is largely dependent on the global economy, continues to slow down and growth globally remains uncertain. Therefore, any recovery in Dubai housing is unlikely before late 2017 at the earliest, JLL predicted.

As for supply, around 2,600 units came onto the market in the first quarter of 2017, most of them in the posh Akoya neighborhood, where there’s a number of development projects in the works. Sixty percent of the new residential units were apartments, about a quarter were villas and the rest were townhouses, according to JLL.

The firm anticipates that only half of the 28,000 units slated for delivery this year will actually come to fruition on time, in line with previous years’ completion rates. Key projects in the pipeline include two planned communities by developer Emaar, Dubai Hills Estate and Arabian Ranches 2, as well as Burj Vista, two luxury apartment buildings in downtown.

JLL projected that the housing supply will to grow by 13.6% by 2019.


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