Eurozone lifts growth view for 2016 but cuts 2017’s

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Growth was uneven across eurozone countries, with Germany
euro

The European Union yesterday edged up its eurozone growth forecast for this year but trimmed it for 2017, warning that the economy faced new challenges due to Brexit and rising inequality.

Brussels also nearly halved its economic growth outlook for Britain itself next year due to uncertainty over the country’s vote to leave the bloc.

Pointing to increased global risks for the 19-country single currency area as shown by the shock victory of Donald Trump in the US, the European Commission said economic growth this year would be 1.7 percent.

The commission also said eurozone growth would slow to 1.5 percent next year, as the negative effects of Britain’s looming divorce from the EU began to be felt more deeply.

“In these volatile and uncertain times, no effort must be spared to safeguard and strengthen this recovery — and ensure that all sections of society feel its benefits,” said EU Economics Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici.

Asked about the impact of the Trump vote in the US, Moscovici stressed the need to boost economic recovery.

“The frustration expressed in the US clearly echoes that of European voters,” Moscovici said.

“Many of our citizens feel excluded from the economic recovery and many of them feel disconnected from government,” he said.

Inflation, long stuck near negative territory, would accelerate sharply, the commission said, as rising oil prices began to lift consumer prices.

The commission said inflation in the eurozone would hit 1.4 percent in 2017, up from an expected 0.3 percent for 2016.

This will come as a relief to the European Central Bank which has started a controversial stimulus program to get inflation nearer to the official target of close to 2 percent.

Growth in all 28 EU nations would hit 1.8 percent in 2016, the commission said, with a drop to 1.6 percent next year.

The EU nearly halved its economic growth outlook for Britain in 2017 due to the impact of the Brexit vote to leave the bloc. It is set to edge up again to 1.2 percent in 2018.

Growth in the UK was projected to fall to 1 percent from 1.9 percent in 2016 “reflecting the impact of heightened uncertainty following the referendum,” the commission said.

Britain voted to leave the EU in a referendum on June 23, with the government set to trigger two years of divorce negotiations in March next year.

The “UK ‘leave’ vote … has raised uncertainty and can be seen as an indicator of heightened policy risks in the current volatile political environment,” the commission forecast said.

Source: Shanghai Daily

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