Ghana’s 2025 budget has drawn sharp criticism from business leaders for sidestepping concrete measures to stabilize fuel costs, a glaring omission that threatens to undercut inflation targets and deepen economic pressures on households and firms.
The Ghana National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GNCCI) warns that the government’s silence on energy pricing—a key driver of inflation and production expenses—risks derailing its goal to lower inflation to 11.9% next year, as volatile fuel import costs and a weakening cedi compound fiscal headaches.
“Fuel prices push up everything—transport, goods, services. Yet there’s no roadmap to rein them in,” said GNCCI CEO Mark Badu Aboagye, who called the oversight a critical flaw in an otherwise reform-heavy budget. While the plan touts tax cuts and VAT adjustments, Aboagye argued that without tackling energy costs, businesses will remain shackled by unpredictable overheads, forcing them to pass expenses to consumers already grappling with sticky food inflation.
The critique follows a rollercoaster year for fuel prices. After climbing for three straight months to a February peak of GH₵16.23 per liter for petrol, costs dipped in March as global crude slid and the cedi stabilized slightly. TotalEnergies and Shell trimmed prices to around GH₵15.70–GH₵15.80 per liter, offering fleeting relief. But traders say structural bottlenecks—not fuel—keep food prices elevated, highlighting the complexity of Ghana’s inflation puzzle.
Analysts note the budget’s fuel blind spot is risky given Ghana’s import reliance. With the cedi down 15% against the dollar this year, energy subsidies scrapped in 2023, and global oil markets swaying on geopolitical tensions, businesses face a triple threat. “Every fuel price swing ripples through supply chains,” said one Accra-based manufacturer, who requested anonymity. “How do you plan investments when your biggest variable is ignored by policymakers?”
The government has defended its focus on tax reforms to spur growth, but critics argue this skirts the root issue: energy costs consume up to 30% of business operating expenses in sectors like logistics and manufacturing. While Aboagye acknowledged budget positives, including corporate tax relief, he stressed that without fuel price controls or hedging strategies, Ghana risks repeating 2022’s crisis, when pump prices surged 80% and inflation hit a 22-year high.
Global parallels offer caution. Nigeria’s 2023 fuel subsidy removal triggered months of unrest and spiked inflation to 28%, while Angola’s staggered price hikes eroded consumer spending. Ghana’s relative stability hinges on avoiding such shocks, but with elections looming in 2024, tough reforms may stall.
For now, businesses are left hedging bets. “The budget’s tax cuts are welcome, but they’re a Band-Aid,” Aboagye said. “Without a fuel strategy, inflation targets are just numbers on paper.” As Ghana walks the tightrope between fiscal discipline and growth, its next move—or lack thereof—on energy could define its economic trajectory.
