The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a 3.2% year-on-year rise in global air cargo demand for January 2025, marking the 18th consecutive month of growth.
However, the pace slowed sharply from double-digit surges seen in 2024, signaling a cooling market as capacity expansions outpaced demand and yields declined.
Measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), the uptick was driven by steady trade growth and e-commerce activity, though the sector faces headwinds from falling load factors and geopolitical uncertainties. Capacity, tracked as available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), rose 6.8% compared to January 2024, widening the gap between supply and demand. This imbalance pushed cargo load factors down by 1.5 percentage points, while yields—still above 2024 levels—dropped 9.9% month-over-month.
“The air cargo industry remains resilient, but the moderation in growth is a clear signal to stay vigilant,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. He cited risks such as potential tariff policies under the renewed US Trump administration, though he emphasized the sector’s adaptability. “Trade expansion and lower fuel costs are tailwinds, but the operating environment is increasingly complex,” Walsh added.
Regional performance varied widely. Latin American carriers led with an 11.2% demand surge, bolstered by cross-border e-commerce and manufacturing rebounds. Asia-Pacific and North American airlines followed with 7.5% and 5.3% growth, respectively. In contrast, Middle Eastern and African carriers faced declines of 8.4% and 3.4%, with Middle East-Europe routes plummeting 7.3% amid ongoing logistical challenges.
Key trade lanes underscored the uneven recovery. The Asia-North America corridor grew 6.1%, extending a 15-month growth streak, while Europe-Asia routes rose 3.2%. Conversely, Africa-Asia demand collapsed by 26.1%, reflecting weakened trade ties and regional economic strains.
Economic indicators provided mixed signals. Global goods trade expanded for a ninth consecutive month, rising 3.3% in December, while manufacturing output inched upward, with January’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hitting 50.62—the highest since July 2024. Inflation remained stable in major markets, with US and European rates at 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively, though China saw a mild rebound to 0.5% after months of near-flat growth.
The report highlighted e-commerce as a critical driver, particularly in the US and Europe, where ocean freight bottlenecks continue to divert shipments to air cargo. However, analysts caution that sustaining growth hinges on balancing capacity with demand and navigating geopolitical shifts.
