Global Automobile Production Expected to Shrink to 88Mln Units by 2025

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Workers assemble Audi A6 L cars at a workshop of FAW-Volkswagen Automobile Co., Ltd. in Changchun, northeast China's Jilin Province, Feb. 17, 2020. A batch of black-colored Audi A6 L cars rolled off the production line on Monday. As the first batch of new cars produced at the FAW-Volkswagen Changchun base after the outbreak of novel coronavirus, it marked that the FAW-Volkswagen Automobile Co., Ltd., a passenger car joint venture between FAW and Volkswagen AG, officially resumed production. With thorough epidemic prevention and control measures, the joint venture's four major manufacturing bases in Changchun, Chengdu, Qingdao and Tianjin resumed production on Monday. (Xinhua/Zhang Nan)
(Xinhua/Zhang Nan)

Global automobile production is expected to drop to 79 million units this year, falling far behind the previous peak of 95 million vehicles manufactured in 2017, while gaining slightly by 2025, according to a forecast of Boston Consulting Group (BCG) obtained by German newspaper Welt am Sonntag.

Contrary to prior forecasts, BCG consultants have predicted lower production of up to 88 million cars in 2025, the newspaper said. According to the consulting agency, only 79 million vehicles will be manufactured this year with a slight increase of up to 83 million in 2023. In contrast, 95 million vehicles were assembled during the most recent peak of production in 2017.

“We believe that the market will rebound in the long term. But the development will vary depending on the manufacturer,” BCG partner Albert Waas was quoted as saying by the newspaper.

The excess demand on the automotive market slipped in the past quarter for the first time since the end of 2020. BCG consultants expect it to drop to zero by early 2024, while most recently demand outpaced supply by 2.5 million cars due to the shortage of semiconductors.

Waas warned that demand would weaken in six to 12 month, becoming “a real challenge” to all automakers despite their current “luxury of full order books.”

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