Global markets surged and the US dollar fell after President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Moscow will begin negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
The news, shared on his Truth Social platform with a promise that “no more lives should be lost,” has injected a note of optimism into a financial landscape long burdened by geopolitical uncertainty.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, summed up the mood by noting that investors are already pricing in the possibility of peace. “While much remains uncertain, markets are already moving to price in the possibility of peace,” he said. Asian equities and European stock futures have climbed, hinting that after years of volatility, there might finally be a chance for stability.
This announcement marks a significant shift in the conflict’s trajectory, potentially easing the risk premium on many assets. The decline in the dollar reflects expectations that reduced geopolitical tensions could decrease the demand for safe-haven investments, while riskier currencies and emerging markets might see new inflows as investors look beyond the immediate crisis.
Yet, the move also raises questions about Europe’s role in the postwar scenario. European officials worry they might be sidelined in negotiations, a concern that underscores the complex balance between regional security and global diplomacy. Green pointed out that a de-escalation would allow capital to return to European equities, industrials, and consumer sectors, which have suffered under the weight of ongoing uncertainty.
Energy markets are likely to be one of the most sensitive areas. Oil prices, for instance, could see a decline if the conflict eases, providing some relief to economies grappling with inflation. However, the long-term benefits will depend on the pace and success of diplomatic progress—a factor that continues to keep markets on edge.
Beyond Europe, emerging markets could benefit significantly from a shift in risk sentiment. A weaker dollar, combined with a reduction in geopolitical tensions, could improve conditions for both emerging market debt and equities, potentially reversing trends of capital outflows seen over the past three years.
The prospect of peace is not just a headline; it represents a potential turning point for global finance. Investors are now preparing for a revaluation of risk assets, and if the negotiations deliver a tangible de-escalation, the repricing could reshape sectors that have been hit hard by supply chain disruptions and energy volatility.
As the world watches these talks unfold, the hope is that diplomatic progress will bring not only stability to the region but also a much-needed boost to a global economy ready to move beyond the shadow of conflict.
