The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects total OPEC+ oil output to expand by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2021 and non-OPEC+ oil supply to increase by 600,000 barrels daily.
“If all goes to plan, OPEC+ oil production would ramp up by around 2 mb/d by the end of 2021, even if there were no increase from Iran. At the same time, output from non-OPEC+ is due to rise by little more than 100 kb/d. For 2021 as a whole, total oil output from OPEC+ is now set to expand by an average 1.2 mb/d compared to a 5.5 mb/d decline last year. For non-OPEC+, oil supply is expected to increase by an average 600 kb/d in 2021 versus a drop of 1.3 mb/d in 2020,” the IEA said in its new oil market report.
Meanwhile, the outlook for the next year “shifts swiftly into abundance” if OPEC+ sticks to its plans, the IEA added.
“By 2Q22, OPEC+ output would rise to 2.7 mb/d above the call. In 2H22, OPEC+ crude oil supply would stand 2.8 mb/d above the call … We expect supply from non-OPEC+ to expand by 1.7 mb/d next year, with the US accounting for nearly 60% of the overall gains,” the report read.