The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that artificial intelligence will elevate global economic output by 0.5% annually through 2030, even as energy demands and emissions linked to AI infrastructure intensify.
The findings, detailed in a report released during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, underscore the tension between AI’s economic promise and its environmental toll.
Driven by productivity gains across industries, AI is expected to counterbalance near-term costs tied to surging electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The IMF emphasized that while emissions from AI operations could grow significantly, the technology’s net economic benefits remain “strongly positive.” Global electricity demand from AI systems alone may triple to 1,500 terawatt-hours by 2030—matching India’s current annual usage—as generative AI, large language models, and data centers scale rapidly.
Under existing energy policies, this expansion could increase global emissions by 1.2% over the 2025–2030 period, with associated environmental costs estimated between $50.7 billion and $66.3 billion. Yet these figures pale against the projected GDP growth, which the IMF attributes to widespread AI adoption. “The social cost of these extra emissions is minor compared with the expected economic gains,” the report stated, while cautioning that unchecked emissions exacerbate long-term climate risks.
The analysis arrives amid calls for tighter alignment between AI development and climate objectives. Governments and tech firms face mounting pressure to address regulatory gaps as deployment outpaces policy frameworks. Roberta Pierfederici, a policy fellow at the Grantham Research Institute, urged collaborative action: “Energy companies, tech firms, and policymakers must ensure AI is deployed sustainably and equitably.”
The IMF’s pragmatic assessment reflects a broader debate over balancing immediate economic advantages with ecological stewardship. While the report avoids labeling AI’s emissions trade-off as neutral, it acknowledges the technology’s role in reshaping macroeconomic and environmental strategies. As nations grapple with competing priorities, the interplay between innovation, growth, and sustainability is poised to dominate policy discussions in the decade ahead.
