The International Monetary Fund forecasts Ghana’s economy will expand by 4% next year, with growth accelerating to 4.8% in 2026, according to its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
These projections align with the Ghanaian government’s own economic targets presented in the 2025 budget.
Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson recently outlined several key economic objectives, including maintaining inflation at 11.9%, achieving a primary budget surplus of 1.5% of GDP, and preserving foreign reserves covering at least three months of imports. The convergence of these domestic and international projections suggests cautious optimism about Ghana’s economic trajectory.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces mixed economic prospects, with regional growth expected to moderate slightly from 4% in 2024 to 3.8% next year. The IMF attributes this slowdown to tightening global financial conditions, fluctuating commodity prices, and ongoing trade tensions that particularly affect commodity-dependent economies like Ghana.
While inflation across the region has improved, falling to a median of 4.5% from 6.5% in 2023, many countries continue struggling with high debt servicing costs. The report notes that interest payments now consume approximately 12% of government revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa – three times the ratio seen in advanced economies.
The IMF emphasizes that sustained policy reforms could help Ghana and similar nations capitalize on their demographic advantages. Key recommendations include strengthening tax collection, improving fiscal management, and implementing structural economic changes. However, the report cautions that declining development assistance and rising global borrowing costs may threaten recovery efforts without international support.
For Ghana, these projections represent both opportunity and challenge. The country’s ability to meet its growth targets will depend on maintaining reform momentum while navigating external economic pressures and domestic fiscal constraints. The coming year will test whether Ghana can translate this cautious optimism into sustained economic progress.
