The Institute of Progressive Governance (IPG) has forecasted a first-round win for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the Vice President and presidential candidate of Ghana’s New Patriotic Party (NPP), in the 7 December 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections.
The institute’s projections suggest that Bawumia will secure 50.2% of the valid votes, leading his main rival, John Mahama, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, who is expected to obtain 47.3% of the vote.
This prediction is based on a survey conducted by the IPG, which polled a representative sample of 29,029 Ghanaians. The survey, carried out using a multi-stage sampling method, covered all 276 constituencies in the country. It was designed to reflect the demographic diversity of Ghana, including responses from farmers, traders, artisans, private sector workers, teachers, and public servants.
In the survey, 13,777 respondents (50.2%) indicated they would vote for Dr. Bawumia, while 12,981 (47.3%) chose Mahama. The remaining 11 presidential candidates are projected to collectively receive just 2.5% of the vote.
On the parliamentary front, the IPG survey predicts that the NPP will secure 117 safe seats, while the NDC is expected to win 56 safe seats. These seats are considered safe because the candidates from both parties are projected to win more than 55% of the votes in those constituencies.
The researchers also suggest that Ghana is likely to avoid a run-off in the 2024 presidential race, which has occurred in the past, most recently in 2000 and 2008. This projection signals a potential decisive victory for Bawumia in the first round.
Click on the link to read the full survey finding of IPG
IPG Survey Document on the 2024 General Elections
