Research Report by Alliance for Social Equity and Public Accountability (ASEPA) indicates that John Dramani Mahama is likely to win the upcoming NDC flagbearer race by some 56% if all the aspirants running against him separately, but he will lose by a small margin if the others join forces and supported one candidate to run against him.

The Report titled “Research into the current electoral dynamics of the NDC ahead of its flagbearer elections” was based on a survey conducted among some 284 potential NDC delegates at the branch, constituency and regional levels in nine purposively selected constituencies in Accra and Kumasi.

It showed that some 26% of respondents said they preferred a new face as NDC candidate, and Executive Director of ASEPA, Mensah Thompson said if the other aspirants manage to even get half of that, 13% in addition to their 44%, they candidate the support will win against John Mahama.

The research also indicated that majority of the respondents at all three levels said in the recent regional, constituency and branch executive elections, said they did not vote for candidates who presented themselves as or were perceived to be associated with John Mahama.

It showed that at the regional level, 57% of respondents said they did not vote for candidates associated with John Mahama; at the constituency level, 62% said they did not voted for John Mahama candidates, while some 58% at the branch level said they rejected John Mahama candidates.

This, according to Executive Director of ASEPA, Mensah Thompson, indicates that John Mahama has lost control of the rank and file of the party, unlike in the case of the NPP, where majority of delegates voted for candidates perceived to be Nana Addo candidates in the constituency, brand and regional elections.

Mensah Thompson predicts that the trend is likely to reflect in the upcoming NDC national executive elections, where people perceived to be John Mahama candidates are likely to lose.

Meanwhile, another 62% of respondents said they want all the current national executives to be changed, while some 36 percent said they want some to remain and some changed based on the wealth of their experience.

Again, the report said if John Mahama was not in the race, Ekow Spio Garbrah is most likely to win the race with 53%, while Alban Bagbin comes in second with some 42%.

In terms of the reasons that will influence people’s choice of a candidate, the report indicated 102 said they will focus on the experience of the candidate, about 56 said they want someone who can win the 2020 general elections, while about a little over 20 said they want a unifier and a paltry five persons said they will vote for someone who will give them money.

“This clearly shows that money still plays a role in who people will vote for,” Thompson said.

Meanwhile, every respondent said they believe any candidate they choose, will get the support of the party Founder, Jerry John Rawlings.

The 284 respondents sampled comprised of 104 in a controlled test in Accra, and 180 respondents in Kumasi.

In Accra, three constituencies were purposively sampled, and they comprise of Weija, Tema Central and Madina, while the Ashanti Region, six constituencies where sampled; they comprise of Asawase, Atwima Nwabiagya South, Obuasi East, Oforikrom and Ahafo Ano South.

Out of the sampled constituencies six branches were sampled and five executive members were further sampled randomly from each branch for the research.

Basic questionnaires and interview sections were used to collect data from the respondents, and it targeted members of the party legally registered and are potential delegates for the 2018 NDC flagbearer election.



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