The March 23 Movement (M23) rebels have captured Bukavu, the capital of DR Congo’s South Kivu province, marking a dramatic escalation in a conflict that now threatens to engulf Central Africa in a wider regional war.
The advance, confirmed by the group on Saturday, came hours after it seized Kavumu Airport, a critical military and humanitarian hub, and forced Congolese troops to retreat toward the border city of Uvira. The stunning gains—coming just weeks after M23 overran Goma, a city of 1 million people—have triggered panic among civilians and urgent appeals for restraint at the African Union (AU) summit in Addis Ababa.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres, addressing AU leaders on Saturday, warned that the crisis risks “regional conflagration” unless immediate diplomatic steps are taken. “There is no military solution,” he stressed, echoing calls by Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye, who cautioned that the conflict could spiral into a “widespread” war. The AU, however, faces steep challenges: mediation efforts have repeatedly collapsed, and DR Congo President Félix Tshisekedi has snubbed key regional talks, including this weekend’s summit, opting to send his prime minister instead.
The M23’s resurgence is rooted in decades of ethnic strife and foreign intervention. The group, predominantly composed of Congolese Tutsis, claims to protect their community from Hutu militias linked to Rwanda’s 1994 genocide. Kinshasa accuses Rwanda of arming M23—a charge Kigali denies—while Rwanda alleges DR Congo collaborates with Hutu rebels. This toxic stalemate is compounded by the scramble for the region’s mineral wealth, including coltan and gold, which fund armed groups and inflame competition.
“This isn’t just a local conflict—it’s a proxy war over resources and historical grievances,” said regional analyst Jean-Claude Mambo. A January report by the International Crisis Group noted that M23’s capture of mining hubs like Rubaya has bolstered its finances, enabling territorial expansion and parallel governance structures, including appointing a “governor” in North Kivu.
Regional mediation efforts, including the AU-led Luanda Process, have faltered. A December summit aimed at brokering talks between Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame was abruptly canceled, and Angolan President João Lourenço, the outgoing AU chair, admitted defeat this weekend, passing the “baton” to his successor.
The humanitarian toll is staggering: over 500,000 displaced since January, adding to 6.4 million already uprooted in eastern DR Congo. UN figures report 3,000 killed and 2,880 injured in recent weeks, though actual numbers are likely higher. “Civilians are trapped between militias and a retreating army,” said a Bukavu-based aid worker. “Those who stay risk execution; those who flee face starvation.”
As the AU summit closed Sunday, new chairperson Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti inherits a crisis that could define his tenure. Youssouf, who pledged to prioritize peace and intra-African trade, must now confront a conflict that embodies the bloc’s deepest challenges: resource-driven violence, foreign interference, and institutional paralysis.
For now, the M23 shows no signs of halting. Its call for Bukavu residents to form “vigilance committees” suggests plans to entrench control, mirroring tactics in Goma. With regional armies on high alert and diplomacy in disarray, the world’s deadliest ongoing conflict risks becoming a continent-wide catastrophe—one the AU seems ill-equipped to prevent.
As night fell on Bukavu Sunday, the echoes of past wars loomed large. Without urgent, unified action, the DR Congo’s pain may soon become Africa’s.
