On the Credibility of Ghanaian Election 2020

Electoral Commission

The error committed by EC is an accidental error other than an error of computation. As the highest statutory pillar of democracy in Ghana such an error is highly unexpected. However, a statement of error which played no role in the determination of percentages obtained by the various presidential candidates, contains no seed of invalidation or discredibility.

The erroneous figure declared as total valid votes was 13, 433,753 (as EC declared) or 13, 434754 (as can be seen on other platforms). Observably, this was not applied in the computation of percentages obtained by the presidential candidates as declared by EC. A careful computation of percentages obtained by the presidential candidates using the stated erroneous total valid votes would have resulted in NPP obtaining approximately 50. 10% and NDC approximately 46.26%.

This is still a victory for NPP per constitutional requirement. Albeit the inappropriateness, it still suggests that NNP would have won with lower denominator. But with a more bigger denominator as total valid votes, NPP might not have met the statutory requirement of 50%+1 votes. Increasing the denominator in respect of total valid votes presented a disadvantage to both candidates but more disadvantage to the winning candidate.

This suggests that if EC played a suspicious role in favour of the winning candidate, the total valid votes cast should rather have been reduced in an intentional or faked error and not the opposite. However, since the said wrong figure was not applied in determining percentages for the various presidential candidates, the less we contend on this matter, suggestively, remains the best option.

The percentages as earlier declared by EC- 51.595% for NPP and 47.366%. Now, given the accurate total valid votes of 13,119,460 (ignoring new additions and subtractions), the candidates obtain approximately 51.30% for NPP and 47. 26% for NDC. These outcomes in comparison with the results declared by EC present absolute errors of 0.295 and 0.106, respectively, for NPP and NDC with corresponding relative errors of about 0.586% and 0.106%. This makes the results declared by EC valid with accuracy rates of 99.414% and 99.894% for NPP and NDC respectively. This indicates a higher rate of accuracy for NDC than it is for NPP.

It can therefore be concluded that

1. The error committed by EC emanates from failure to quote correctly the total number of valid votes
2. Percentage of votes obtained by each candidate was dominated by negligible round-off errors
3. The results give no clue of any attempt whatsoever to rig the election in favour of one candidate
4. The erroneous total valid votes was not applied in computing earlier percentages for each presidential candidate as declared by EC on the 9th of December, 2020.
5. The error in connection with total valid votes does not invalidate or discredit EC’s declaration
6. The results as declared by EC has a high degree of accuracy, hence the results of the Ghanaian Election 2020 is accurate and credible.

By John Lion Awuah Addor.
Senior Lecturer
Takoradi Technical University

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