OPEC Downgrades Forecasts for 2021, 2022 Non-OPEC Oil Production

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Photo taken on April 9, 2020 shows pump nozzles at a gas station in Brussels, Belgium. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, reached on Thursday a tentative agreement to cut production to stop a market free-fall amid the coronavirus pandemic, pending the consent of Mexico. (Xinhua/Zhang Cheng)
Photo taken on April 9, 2020 shows pump nozzles at a gas station in Brussels, Belgium. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, reached on Thursday a tentative agreement to cut production to stop a market free-fall amid the coronavirus pandemic, pending the consent of Mexico. (Xinhua/Zhang Cheng)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) downgraded its forecasts for non-OPEC oil production by 210,000 barrels daily (bpd) to 63.64 million bpd in 2021 and by 130,000 bpd to 66.66 million bpd in 2022.

“Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2021 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to now stand at 0.7 mb/d. The revisions were driven mainly by a downward adjustment in 3Q21 due to factors such as production outages in the US Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Ida; maintenance in the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan; and a force majeure in Canada at the Suncor oil sands site,” OPEC said in its monthly oil market report.

At the same time, OPEC slightly increased it assessment of non-OPEC liquids supply in 2020 to 62.98 million bpd from 62.93 million bpd.

“The non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2022 has been revised up by 0.1 mb/d, mainly in Kazakhstan, to now stand at 3.0 mb/d y-o-y,” OPEC added.

OPEC expects Russia and the United States to be key drivers of the liquids supply growth, followed by Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana and other non-OPEC nations. Uncertainty regarding the financial and operational aspects of US production remains high, OPEC added.

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