Our Final Forecast for Nigeria’s 2019 Presidential Election

Buhari Will Win 2019 Nigeria’s Presidential Election, Says SnowWhite

Buhari and Atiku (Photo Credit: Pulse)
Buhari and Atiku (Photo Credit: Pulse)

A research and consulting firm, SnowWhite Consulting, based in the United Kingdom has projected that President Muhammadu Buhari will be victorious in the forthcoming presidential election in the oil-rich Nigeria. This was made known by the Director of Communication and Strategy, Mr. Adeola Jegede at a press release yesterday at its London office.


According to Jegede, “February 16, 2019 is another date with destiny in Nigerian political landscape as various political parties present their candidates as well as manifestoes to the electorates to make rightful choice on who will lead the global most populous black nation for the next four years”.


“The firm observes that the race will be between the ruling party, All Progressive Congress (APC) and the People Democratic Party (PDP) with President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as their respective candidates”.


Jegede reiterates that the stakes in Nigeria electioneering process are high both locally and internationally, evidenced by powerful voices clamouring for free, fair, transparent and credible electioneering exercise in Nigeria.


The firm’s spokesperson stated that the presidential election results projection is based on various variables that could determine how the electorates tend to cast their votes.


“Our research survey identified among other factors: historical voting pattern, performance of incumbent president, existence of political structure spread, personality of each candidate, availability of sufficient campaign funding, followership’s loyalty, internal party stability and coordination, as well as power of incumbency as part of variables that determine the how Nigeria electorates may cast their ballots. Other considerations are party’s strategy disposition, voting capacity by each state measured by PVC collection rate, and general support base”, he stated.


According to Jegede, the poll survey projects that the total number of votes to be cast on February 16, 2019 presidential election tends to hover around 33.65 million, of which the APC presidential candidate, President Muhammadu Buhari, expected to secure around 19.2 million votes representing 58.2% of total ballot cast, while main opposition PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar projected to get up to 13.9 million votes representing 41.3% and the rest would secure just little above half a million votes, accounting for 5% of the likely total vote cast across the country.


The details of the projection are further stated below:



Projection For Overall Results






No of States won

Muhammadu  Buhari APC 58.2% 26 (Including FCT)
Atiku Abubakar PDP 41.3% 11
Others 0.5%  





Projection of State By State Victory


Geopolitical Zones  



Party Votes
South East Abia PDP 80%
Enugu PDP 89%
Imo PDP 51%
Ebonyi PDP 74%
Anambra PDP 79%
South South Rivers PDP 53%
Akwa Ibom APC 52%
Delta PDP 59%
Cross Rivers PDP 66%
Edo APC 60%
Bayelsa PDP 71%
South West Osun APC 62%
Oyo APC 53%
Ondo APC 75%
Ogun APC 57%
Ekiti APC 63%
Lagos APC 75%
North East Borno APC 83%
Yobe APC 81%
Adamawa APC 54%
Bauchi APC 61%
Taraba PDP 57%
Gombe APC 51%
North Central Kwara APC 52%
Kogi APC 53%
Nasarawa APC 52%
Niger APC 59%
Benue PDP 64%
Plataeu APC 51%
North West Kano APC 83%
Katsina APC 80%
Kaduna APC 59%
Zamfara APC 66%
Sokoto APC 52%
Jigawa APC 52%
Kebbi APC 66%




Projection By Geopolitical Zones



PDP Others
South East 24% 70% 6%
South South 46% 54% 0%
South West 67% 33.5% 0.5%
North East 66% 34% 0%
North Central 50% 50% 0%
North West 70% 30% 0%
FCT 56% 44% 0%




Projection By Winning Vote Position




Party Position
Muhammadu  Buhari APC 1st
Atiku Abubakar PDP 2nd
John Gbor APGA 3rd
Yabagi Sanni ADP 4th
Chris Okotie Fresh 5th
Omoyele Sowore AAC 6th
Fela Durotoye ANN 7th
Kingsley Moghalu YPP 8th


“Our projection for the Nigeria presidential election was based on ±5% margin of error” he confirmed.


“There are quite numbers of undecided voters, but we observed that they are unlikely to change their minds to vote for any candidate during the presidential election”, the statement concluded.

Article By: Adeola Jegede

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