In the wake of Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s surprising defeat to John Dramani Mahama in the 2024 presidential election, political analyst and pollster Prof. Smart Sarpong shared his reflections on the unexpected results during an appearance on Angel FM.
Sarpong, a well-known figure in Ghanaian political analysis, had been one of the few voices predicting a victory for the incumbent government, led by President Nana Akufo-Addo and Dr. Bawumia. However, with Mahama’s landslide win defying many expectations, including his own, Sarpong acknowledged the unpredictability of election outcomes.
“Election results are never set in stone,” Sarpong began, acknowledging the uncertainty that surrounds electoral forecasting. “Only God knows the true outcome,” he added, stressing the unpredictability that often accompanies such pivotal moments in a nation’s political life.
His comments came in response to his own earlier predictions, which had suggested that the Akufo-Addo administration, led by Bawumia, would secure a second term. However, when the final results were announced, Mahama’s overwhelming victory left many, including Sarpong himself, stunned.
“I had based my predictions on a sample collected several months before the election,” Sarpong explained. He admitted that external factors, such as changes in the political landscape and economic conditions, likely impacted his forecast. “A lot can change in a month, and factors like voter turnout, the economic situation, and campaign strategies all play a role in influencing the outcome.”
Sarpong also pointed out the critical role of voter turnout, a factor that can often skew predictions despite sound research methods. “In theory, the sample I collected was solid, but voter turnout plays a huge role. People’s decisions can be swayed by last-minute events or personal factors that are difficult to predict,” he noted.
Despite the surprise result, Sarpong stood by his commitment to professional integrity and transparency. He reminded his audience of the limitations inherent in electoral polling. “We rely on data to make predictions, but the real world doesn’t always follow the numbers,” he said. “It’s a humbling reminder of the complexity of elections.”
