Tablet sales to end-users are expected to grow 45.0% year over year in 2013 reaching 62.3 million units, up from 42.9 million last year, according to a?newly released forecast?of the United States Personal Computer, Tablet, & Mobile Phone Market from Daniel Research Group (DRG).???Over the next five years, the installed base of tablets in use will grow from 87.0 million in 2012 to 411.6 million in 2017, a CAGR of 36.5%.
?Tablets sales today are driven more by their adoption into new markets, than by Personal Computer cannibalization,? said Steve Daniel, president of?DRG. ?In both the Consumer and Enterprise sectors Tablets as they are configured today from?Apple, Samsung, Amazon ASUS and Microsoft?are significantly more likely to represent anet new addition, or a replacement for?non-Personal Computer?products, than a Personal Computer replacement.?
?Since their introduction in 2009, tablets have had a minimal effect on traditional Personal Computer sales, cannibalizing only 1% of Personal Computer sales in the first year, but growing steadily to 7% last year. However, DRG forecasts that the rate of cannibalization will accelerate significantly over the next two years.??DRG forecasts that tablets will replace 14% of potential Personal Computer sales in 2013 and that those sales will account for 14% of all tablet sales.
The Personal Computer cannibalization process will peak in 2016 at 34% and then begin a decline as the remaining installed base of traditional Personal Computers support applications that require the power, performance and I/O configurations that only traditional Personal Computers can provide.??By 2019, cannibalized Personal Computer sales are forecasted to account for slightly more than half of all tablet sales.?Cannibalization will be stronger in the Mobile Personal Computer base than in the Desktop base, and stronger in the Consumer sector than in the Enterprise sector.?