WTO Upgrades 2021 Global Trade Growth Forecast to 10.8 Percent


The World Trade Organization (WTO) upgraded its forecast for the global trade growth in 2021 to 10.8% from the 8% prediction made in March.

“The WTO is now predicting global merchandise trade volume growth of 10.8% in 2021 — up from 8.0% forecast in March — followed by a 4.7% rise in 2022,” the WTO said in its new report.

In March, the WTO estimated the 2022 growth at 4%.

According to the WTO, the growth will slow down, as merchandise trade is returning to the pre-pandemic long-term trends.

“Supply-side issues such as semiconductor scarcity and port backlogs may strain supply chains and weigh on trade in particular areas, but they are unlikely to have large impacts on global aggregates. The biggest downside risks come from the pandemic itself,” the WTO explained.

Trade volume growth will be accompanied by market-weighted GDP growth of 5.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022 (revised up from 5.1% and 3.8%, respectively).

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