The US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate rise in three years has put pressure on the gold price, and with it on the main source of dollars that Ghana has relied on to rebuild its reserves and steady the cedi.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to between 3.75 and 4.00 percent on 16 September 2026, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. It was the first increase since July 2023. Sixteen of the 18 officials who submitted projections expect at least one more rise before the end of the year, and the committee meets again on 27 and 28 October.
Gold pays no interest, so it becomes less attractive when returns on bonds and deposits rise. The day after the decision, spot gold traded near US$4,295 an ounce, close to a six-week low, Reuters reported. That was about 22 percent below the record morning London fix of US$5,501.70 set on 29 January.
Why Accra is watching
Few economies are as exposed to that move as Ghana’s. Gold earned US$14.86 billion of the country’s US$22.44 billion in merchandise exports in the first eight months of 2026, about two-thirds of the total, according to Bank of Ghana data.
Since July, the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) has bought and exported gold with commercial funding, selling part of the dollars to banks and passing part to the central bank for its reserves. When the gold price falls, every ounce shipped brings in fewer dollars.
Bank of Ghana Governor Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama made the link himself on 24 September, when he was asked about the country’s foreign exchange buffers. He said shipping delays were a smaller risk than world prices, which Ghana cannot control. “When the US increases its policy rate, gold prices tend to be depressed,” he said.
Buffers already thinner
The Fed move comes as Ghana’s reserves recover from a sharp drop. Gross international reserves fell from US$14.16 billion in March to US$11.07 billion at the end of August, or 4.2 months of import cover. Gold exports slowed from mid-August as GoldBod introduced a requirement for gold to be refined in Ghana before export. Reserves had climbed back to US$12.05 billion, about 4.5 months of cover, by 22 September.
The cedi has lost about 10 percent against the dollar since January, and demand for dollars usually rises in the fourth quarter as importers stock up for Christmas. Asiama has said rebuilding reserves is the Bank’s priority for the coming months.
Oil could cut both ways
The Fed tied its decision partly to an energy shock from the war involving Iran, which has pushed up fuel costs worldwide. For Ghana, that is a double burden: dearer fuel imports and a weaker gold price at the same time. OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong told Reuters that gold was likely to stay within a range, and could recover in the medium term if oil prices fell.
Much now depends on the Fed’s next moves. Another rise in October or December would keep pressure on gold, and on the dollars Ghana earns from it.
