Long-Dated DDEP Yields Climb as GFIM Turnover Hits GH¢1.28bn

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Ghanas Debt Restructuring
Ghanas Debt Restructuring Copyright © Stears 2024

Yields on most of Ghana’s actively traded restructured bonds rose on Friday as investors traded GH¢529.1 million of the paper, lifting fixed income market turnover to GH¢1.28 billion.

The Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM) recorded 314 trades in the session. Treasury bills led with GH¢606.6 million across 230 deals, about 47 percent of the total. Bonds from the 2023 Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) came second with 43 deals, about 41 percent of turnover.

The move in yields matters to the banks, pension funds and individuals who received these bonds in the 2023 exchange. When yields rise, prices fall. Six of the nine DDEP bonds that changed hands closed at higher yields than they opened, including three of the four busiest.

The February 2032 bond, with a 9.10 percent coupon, was the most traded government security of the day. It recorded GH¢147.2 million across seven trades, and its yield rose from 14.00 percent to 14.36 percent, leaving it priced at 80.69. The February 2029 paper made the sharpest move. Its yield jumped 64 basis points to 13.49 percent on GH¢110.0 million of trades. The February 2031 bond traded GH¢108.2 million and edged up to 14.36 percent.

The February 2030 bond went the other way. Its yield eased from 14.10 percent to 13.81 percent on GH¢98.2 million of trades. At the long end, the February 2038 bond climbed to 15.16 percent on GH¢19.4 million.

Treasury bill trading was dominated by a single instrument. A 364-day bill maturing on 21 June 2027 took GH¢303.2 million in five trades, half of all bill turnover and almost a quarter of the whole market, at a yield of 8.76 percent. That gap shows how steep the government’s borrowing curve remains: investors accepted under 9 percent to lend for nine months but demanded more than 14 percent for bonds running to 2032.

Sell and buy back trades in government notes and bonds added GH¢136.2 million across 28 deals, led by an GH¢85.5 million position in the February 2036 bond at 14.57 percent.

Trading was thin elsewhere. New government notes and bonds recorded GH¢2.85 million, all in a September 2030 bond that closed at 12.05 percent. Corporate bonds recorded GH¢2.52 million, most of it in Ghana Cocoa Board’s August 2027 paper, which closed at 102.05, up from 100.56. Old government bonds saw a single trade worth GH¢10,104.

The debt exchange shook the market badly. Annual GFIM turnover fell from GH¢230 billion in 2022 to GH¢98 billion in 2023, then recovered by 76 percent to GH¢174 billion in 2024.

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