At the run-off election to be held on Sunday, 2 December 2012, Slovenia will get its fourth democratically elected president since the country proclaimed its independence in 1991. So far this function has been carried out by Milan Kucan (two terms in office), Janez Drnov?ek andDanilo T?rk.
The run-off will be held between Borut Pahor and Danilo T?rk. In the first round of election, Pahor won with 39.93% of votes, followed by T?rk (35.90%) and Milan Zver (24.18%). Despite more promising forecasts the turnout was rather low with only 48.25% of altogether 1.7 million eligible voters having cast their votes.
LOOKING FOR A VISION FOR SLOVENIA?S FUTURE
Since 2008 Slovenia has been facing a difficult economic and political situation. In performing their analyses of Slovenia some credit rating agencies have taken into account high political risks, which tells a lot about the political situation in this country.
Ever since the country gained independence there has been fierce struggle between the so called forces of continuity (former communists) symbolised by former President Milan Kucan and the Slovenian Spring led by the incumbent Prime MinisterJanez Jan?a.
During the years of cyclical boom and high economic growth, political polarisation did not cause any significant problems to this most successful novice among the countries of the former Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY).
However, with the economic crisis and recession growing in the world and Europe, especially after 2008, all the problems came to light in Slovenia ? the crisis has revealed all the mistakes the country has made since its independence.
Most of them stem from the processes of privatisation of former socially owned property. Certain individuals became rich practically overnight, usually through management buyouts of companies backed with enormous loans granted by state banks.
When the economic crisis caused the prices of shares to fall, the so called tycoons were no longer able to pay high loan rates. Once large and successful companies went bankrupt one after another, which lead to a surge of unemployment.
The called comradeship economy prevented proper implementation of the rule of law in Slovenia. Thus, none of the high political representatives or business people have been convicted by a final judgement for numerous frauds and criminal offences they committed during their terms of office.
In 2004 Slovenia became a full member of NATO and EU and in 2010 also a member of OECD. Analysts have noted that after great successes in reaching its goals of gaining independence, full membership in NATO and EU and recently also in OECD, Slovenia is now left without any goals for the future.
Its candidate status for EU membership had mobilised most of the citizens and institutions who worked hard to reach the goal of full EU membership. Once those goals were reached, the political elites were completely unprepared for any further action.
Instead of taking action to consolidate the state, the authorities had to face the economic crisis and the consequences of numerous mistakes from the transitional period, and instead of taking appropriate action they concentrated forces on dealing with themselves and each other.
Moreover, Slovenia is dominated by the informal centres of power that have operated from the backstage and undermined the work of any government that wanted to act transparently and in the public interest.
Analysts believe that despite being an EU member state Slovenia needs its own new goals. Excuses such as that the state will follow the policy set by the EU or Brussels point to the fact that Slovenia has no clear vision for the future.
It should look for its own solutions and follow its own interests, which means that it should develop strong bilateral relations beyond the EU and look for new markets where Slovenia has not been present yet or where its presence has been very week so far.
T?RK FAILED TO MEET THE EXPECTATIONS OF VOTERS
The incumbent President of the Republic of Slovenia Danilo T?rk was a new face on the political scene and a refreshment at previous presidential election. He was not involved in party politics, although he was proposed as candidate for the election by his present challenger and Social Democrats (SD) leader Borut Pahor.
His victory at previous presidential election was an introduction into SD victory at 2008 parliamentary election. President of the state is a moral authority and if he/she carries out this function properly during the first term of office it is almost certain that he/she would be re-elected for the second term.
Thus it is obvious that T?rk failed to meet the expectations and trust the voters vested in him at previous election.
As an independent candidate T?rk is supported by Positive Slovenia (PS) led by the Mayor of Ljubljana Zoran Jankovic and the Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) as well as by some non-parliamentary parties.
Slovenian voters expect the president to be beyond party politics. The incumbent president seemed to meet those expectations for the first few months of his term of office, but then he started to get involved in party politics and consequently began losing the trust of voters.
This was aggravated by several findings of irrational spending of his office and by certain statements he made which discredited him in the public and probably prevented his international ambitions such as the position of UN General Secretary.
At the beginning of his presidential term of office it was expected that T?rk would bring new impetus into Slovenian political sphere and gain recognition at the regional and international level. But he failed to meet those expectations, too.
At the regional level he was expected to compete with the former Croatian President Stjepan Mesic who was the most reputable and renowned president in the region and enjoyed respect at the international level.
However, T?rk was not only unable to win regional and international recognition ? his reputation was fading even among his voters. Despite the fact that the powers of the President are very limited, he was expected to contribute significantly to creating a fresh and positive atmosphere.
Analysts have pointed to the key strategic mistake T?rk made when he let certain individuals operating from behind Slovenian political scene use his function as an opportunity to deal with their opponents.
Analysts believe that T?rk?s chances for re-election would be much better had he led his own autonomous politics.
The support of former Slovenia?s president Milan Kucan hindered rather than helped T?rk?s campaign, since such approach reminds Slovenian voters ? used to relatively mature democratic principles ? of the past socialist practices.
T?rk?s slogan at 2007 presidential election was ?The president who unites?. Ironically, during his term of office Slovenia has experienced the deepest political split since it has gained independence.
Danilo T?rk represents a political paradox ? he presents himself as a non-party candidate although he is supported by several parties and perceived by the public as a political party candidate.
On the other hand his challenger Borut Pahor, who is officially the candidate proposed by the Social Democrats and supported by the Citizen?s List (DL) led by the incumbent Speaker of Slovenian Parliament Gregor Virant as well as by some minor parties, is perceived by the public as a non-party candidate.
PAHOR ? A NON-PARTY CANDIDATE SUPPORTED BY POLITICAL PARTIES
Borut Pahor was proposed as candidate for President by the opposition Social Democrats (SD) whose president he was until June this year. He was Slovenian Prime Minister in the 2008-2011 government which the analysts have assessed as the worst government since Slovenia?s independence.
Prior to that he was Member of the European Parliament and the Speaker of Slovenian Parliament. Pahor is an experienced politician stemming from the so called forces of continuity, although he has managed to distance himself from those forces and to create his own political path.
Those forces of continuity and individuals operating from behind the political scene had, according to his statements, tried to dismantle his government.
Nevertheless, during his government he tried to act for unity not only in Slovenia but also in the West Balkan region, helping those countries on their way to the EU.
However, his actions often lacked transparency. He has had several ?secret? meetings with former Serbia?s President Boris Tadic and also co-operated with the controversial President of the Republika Srpska entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik.
Thus the public is still not aware of all Pahor?s promises to Dodik, nor of the Social Democrats? strong support to Dodik?s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) which has been recently expelled from the Socialist International although its membership in that organisation had been backed by Pahor?s SD.
Pahor will have to ensure transparency in his relations with the Balkan states, or else he will become the same kind of politician as Dodik, ?ukanovic and others.
Pahor is one of few politicians who are ready to admit their past mistakes and to act for the unity and benefit of Slovenia and its citizens.
Although entrusted with limited powers, in practice the President of the Republic can significantly contribute to creating a positive atmosphere in the society.
The best example of a successful president is Croatia?s former President Mesic who was elected in 2000 and contributed to a radical change in Croatian political scene and managed to overcome the international isolation of the country.
Analysts believe that Pahor?s qualities stem from his true desire to unify and his tendency to avoid ideological issues that divide Slovenian society.
Although officially being a party candidate, his actions are seen by the public as non-party and autonomous. In the current difficult situation Slovenia will have to unite all efforts to exit the crisis, leaving behind the traditional division on the left and the right and forgetting old resentments, or else it will be forced to ask for international assistance and lose its sovereignty as a state.
The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)
http://www.ifimes.org/default.cfm?Jezik=En&Kat=10&ID=737
