The build-up to the 2015 General Election in Nigeria has been marred by some violence. The CLEEN Foundation Security Threat Assessment published in March 2015 found 15 states to be on the red threat level. On the other hand, in its Pre-Election Report and Advisory on Violence in Nigeria?s 2015 General Elections NHRC documented that at least 58 persons have been killed in elections and politically related violence in Nigeria. More so, nearly 2 million people have been displaced in the North Eastern part of Nigeria as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency.
The March 28th Presidential Election has been hailed in many quarters as being largely peaceful and free of post-election violence. Some attribute this relative peace to the laudable decision of President Jonathan to concede the election even before the official final results were announced, while others attribute the outcome to the public commitment made by the key contenders to accept the outcome of the elections and their charge to their supporters to eschew violence.
Ahead of the Gubernatorial Elections however, key concerns remain for public safety and security in Nigeria. The gubernatorial elections present security challenges considering a number of factors namely: a) the likelihood of political parties to cling to, or win new states after consideration of the outcome of the presidential polls; b) the presence of local dynamics which might not have been in play in the presidential elections ?including zoning of candidacy, power of incumbency as well as pressures to install a preferred candidate. This policy brief summarizes the risk of electoral violence ahead of the gubernatorial elections and presents recommendations.
Elections are often surrounded by some degree of tension and risk of violence in Nigeria. The following states have been identified as high risk states for electoral violence as we get closer to the gubernatorial elections coming up on the 11th April, 2015 are Benue, Nasarawa, Niger Plateau, Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta, Lagos, Ekiti, Oyo, Abia and Ebonyi
Recommendations
Urgent security review and briefing should be conducted by all Commissioners of Police at the State level. Electoral and Security officials working in states and localities with visible threats of violence must adequately be briefed to ensure vigilance and prompt action.
There need for systematic deployment of security apparatuses in all hotspot areas to forestall violence and to ensure rapid response to distress calls.
The safety and security of INEC staff must be prioritized particularly ad-hoc staff and members of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) both individually and the corpers lodges.
INEC and Security officials should improve on deployment logistics to ensure that polling stations open for accreditation promptly thus minimizing the risk of counting votes late at night.
Challenges recorded with the card readers should be urgently corrected and polling units should have access to back up card readers to ensure smooth accreditation.
Traditional rulers and community leaders should intensify efforts to speak to constituents to ensure free, fair and cordial elections. The tendency of politicians to monitor outcome of elections in different communities and thereafter challenge members of the community must be discouraged.
Citizens and civil society organisations should pay keen attention to the elections and report their observations to appropriate authorities using the published election helplines. Furthermore, accurate and responsible reports sent to observing CSOs can help to improve understanding of trends in the elections.
