The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has declared Ghana one of the stronger-performing economies in sub-Saharan Africa while warning that maintaining fiscal discipline after the country’s programme concludes will determine whether the gains of the past two years endure.
Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF’s African Department, made the remarks at the release of the Fund’s April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, citing sustained improvements driven by reforms implemented under the IMF-supported programme.
“We have been very happy to see the continued improvement in macroeconomic outcomes in Ghana,” Selassie said, pointing to progress on revenue mobilisation, structural weaknesses in state-owned enterprises, and energy sector stabilisation as drivers of the turnaround.
The data underpinning the IMF’s assessment is striking. Ghana’s primary balance swung from a deficit of 2.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 to a surplus of 2.6 percent in 2025, while the debt-to-GDP ratio fell sharply from 61.8 percent to 45.3 percent, significantly ahead of earlier targets. International reserves now cover 5.8 months of imports. Growth reached approximately 6 percent in 2025, inflation dropped from 23.8 percent in 2024 to 5.8 percent in 2025 and further to 3.2 percent by March 2026, and the cedi appreciated by more than 40 percent against the US dollar last year.
Despite the record, Selassie tempered optimism with a clear-eyed warning about what comes next.
“Going forward, it is really about how to make sure that the fiscal balance remains contained and there is a continued balance between addressing development needs and avoiding sustainability challenges,” he said.
He stressed that the responsibility for sustaining the reform path belongs squarely to Ghana’s own institutions and citizens, not to the Fund.
“This is not for IMF. This is for the people of Ghana, the government, the private sector and civil society to take,” Selassie said.
On the policy agenda ahead, the IMF identified strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation through improved tax administration and digitalisation as a priority, alongside reducing tax expenditures including exemptions and preferential rates estimated at roughly three percent of GDP across the region and developing property taxation as a supplementary revenue source. On spending, the Fund expects authorities to reprioritise toward critical social programmes while improving efficiency and rebuilding fiscal buffers over the medium term.
The regional outlook has grown more uncertain following escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed up energy and transportation costs. Selassie warned that the pressures were already being felt by ordinary households.
The IMF projects Ghana’s growth at approximately 4.6 percent, broadly in line with other forecasts, while noting that reform momentum will be essential to avoiding slippages that could reverse progress made.
“The lessons of the recent past, hopefully, will be salutary,” Selassie said.
