Is Iran about to change? Is there a chance? that the conflict with the West over Iran?s nuclear program will? now end?
The June 14 presidential election resulted in victory for Hasan? Rowhani, a man many are labelling a ?moderate? and even a? ?reformer.?
Rowhani, a Shi?ite cleric, has made mostly conciliatory? statements since becoming president-elect.
Undoubtedly, Rowhani can be labelled a moderate only by the? standards of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
He is a cleric who has been a regime insider, a member of the? ?Expediency Council? and has very close relations with the most? conservative among the regime powerful, including the Supreme? Leader.
Still, he was clearly the most moderate among the choices the? voters faced, and his selection is an important development.
It remains to be seen what exactly it portends.
It?s important to remember that Iran is not a true democracy.
Voters selected from among a small handful of men approved by? the unelected Guardian Council. Further, the president, who? nevertheless does have some democratic legitimacy, is not the most? powerful man in the country. It is the supreme leader, Ayatollah? Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all matters.
In spite of that, the president does exert a great deal of? influence.
What?s truly fascinating about the election is that Rowhani, who? pledges to improve relations with the West, is becoming president? because the supreme leader has decided to allow it.
The big question is why Khamenei permitted Rowhani to win.
The last time Iranian voters tried to bring change to their? country, back in 2009, the supreme leader made sure his preferred? candidate emerged victorious. The result was the re-election of? now-outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad amid massive protests? accusing the government of fraud.
This time, the majority of Iranians who want change managed to? elect the most moderate candidate from among their limited choices.
There are a number of reasons why this may have happened. The? most promising possibility is that Rowhani won because Khamenei is? ready for change.
The last few years have been extremely difficult for Iran. The? social protests created bitterness and division and frayed the? fabric of society.
Iran?s continuing nuclear enrichment in defiance of its? international commitments brought on costly economic sanctions.? Sanctions have hit the economy hard, adding to social strife.
Ahmadinejad?s abrasive style, his Holocaust denial and taunting? of the international community have added to international? isolation and mistrust.
One possibility is that Khamenei has decided the nuclear program? has gone far enough and has opted to allow a man with a more? conciliatory tone to become the face of Iran as it unwinds its? enmity with the rest of the world and eases ties with critics at? home.
A second possibility is that the relatively moderate forces? inside Iran outmanoeuvred the supreme leader.
There were two moderate candidates, Rowhani and Mohammed Reza? Aref. Aref pulled out just days before the election, allowing? moderates to unify behind a single candidate.
It is also true that Rowhani?s ?reformist? platform only became? evident late into the campaign, after he had been approved by the? Guardians.
If this is what happened, maybe Khamenei discovered Rowhani?s? leanings too late to stop him. After the 2009 experience maybe he? didn?t want to risk another uprising.
If that is the case, Khamenei will not allow Rowhani to go too? far with his easing of social rules and foreign policy.
A third possibility is that Khamenei chose Rowhani in order to? soften the regime?s image without making any changes to the? country?s policies.
If that is the case, it is possible that the regime plans to? continue pushing ahead, as it has done for a decade, making? progress toward a nuclear weapon, while creating the illusion that? it is becoming much more moderate in order to fool the West into? relaxing sanctions and lowering its guard.
Any of these scenarios is possible. President Barack Obama is? right to say he will not lift any sanctions unless he sees concrete? evidence of a changing behaviour.
It would be great news to the world if Iran is indeed becoming? more moderate. But for now Rowhani says the nuclear program will? continue. The centrifuges are still spinning.
Tehran is still supporting Bashar Assad?s butchery in Syria, and? political prisoners have not been released.
