Ghana must make tax refunds predictable, ease customs clearance and widen access to foreign exchange to turn investor interest into committed capital, Emerging Market Advisory said.
The advisory firm’s Africa Investment Pulse report, which tracks investor activity from May to August 2026, found that investors still rate Ghana as a moderately to highly attractive gateway into West Africa. Their interest centres on payments, small business finance, logistics, agro-processing and regulated services that rely on the country’s regional position.
The problem, the report said, is execution. Investors are adding cushions for delays in value added tax (VAT) refunds, customs exposure, currency risk and approvals paperwork before they commit to scaling projects. The report separates announced deals and expressions of interest from capital that has reached financial close. It warned that headline interest should not be read as money already invested.
Ghana’s official data shows how wide that gap can be. The 2025 Annual Investment Report, compiled by the Ghana Investment Promotion Authority (GIPA), the Bank of Ghana and other agencies, recorded US$2.62 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows last year, against about US$11.48 billion in announced pipeline investments. On a balance of payments basis, net FDI came to US$1.91 billion, and 95.4 per cent of that came from profits that companies already in Ghana reinvested rather than from fresh capital.
The 2025 inflows were still a sharp recovery from US$617.61 million in 2024, according to the same report. It projects FDI of about US$2.80 billion in 2026 and US$3.11 billion in 2027.
On tax, Emerging Market Advisory said investors now build the timing of VAT refunds into their financial models. Uncertainty over when recoverable VAT will come back raises working capital needs and can weaken the economics of a project. The firm urged the authorities to focus on making refunds predictable rather than only on headline tax rates. It also called for customs documents to be digitised to cut paperwork for firms trading across borders.
Approval paperwork is another drag. Investors have been strengthening their tax clearance files and confirming approvals with the investment promotion agency before scaling regional platforms, the report said. It recommended simpler compliance procedures. GIPA replaced the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre this year under new legislation. Local partner arrangements also face closer scrutiny, with investors demanding transparent governance before projects move ahead.
On currency, the report acknowledged recent steps to steady the cedi. These include tighter oversight of foreign exchange withdrawals, remittance companies and payment providers, a crackdown on false import declaration forms and bulk cash movements, and rules-based foreign exchange auctions alongside discretionary interventions.
But it said structural weaknesses remain. A large share of Ghana’s foreign exchange earnings comes from gold, which leaves inflows exposed to commodity price swings. Informal currency channels remain entrenched, and weak incentives for export diversification could limit how long any gains in currency supply last. For investors, these factors affect both operating costs and the ability to repatriate profits.
The report projects African growth of 4.2 per cent in 2026, down from an estimated 4.4 per cent in 2025, with West Africa expected to expand by 4.7 per cent. It said inflation, borrowing costs, currency conditions and debt pressures now weigh as heavily as growth in decisions on where capital goes.
