German exports surged in July, growing at their fastest pace in more than two years, data released Monday showed, adding to signs that Europe’s biggest economy has rebounded from a weak second quarter.
Exports rose 4.7 per cent to a record 98.2 billion euros (127.1 billion dollars) as strong demand from the United States and EU members outside the eurozone allayed fears about the fallout for German trade from global crisis, the Federal Statistics Office said.
“Trade could thus once again make a positive contribution to growth in the third quarter,” said Johannes Mayr, economist at the German bank Bayern LB.
July’s jump in exports – the largest rise since May 2012 – easily beat analysts’ forecasted increase of 0.6 per cent and June’s modest increase of 0.9 per cent.
The seasonally unadjusted value also rose to a record of 101 billion euros.
In addition, Germany posted a record trade surplus of 22.2 billion euros in July, the statistics office said.
Monday’s trade data also showed German imports slumped month-on-month by a surprise 1.8 per cent in July after rising by a robust 4.5 per cent in June. Analysts had expected a 0.2-per-cent increase in July.
The German economy shrank 0.2 per cent in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year, fuelling concerns that the nation could be headed for a recession.
But data released last week showed both German industrial orders and production growing faster than expected in July, and figures released Monday by Germany’s electronics industry, a leading contributor to the nation’s exports, added to hopes about the outlook.
German electronics businesses started the second half of the year on an optimistic note, with production, sales and orders all higher in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2013, industry association ZVEI said.
But the ZVEI joined other leading German exporters, including the car and chemical industries, in warning about the risks for the nation’s business amid ongoing global tensions.
“The economic environment facing the industry remains characterized by increasing uncertainty, especially as a result of the geopolitical situation and the fragile state of the eurozone,” said ZVEI chief economist Andreas Gontermann.
For the moment, however, the export data is likely to help ease concerns about the impact of global tensions, notably the showdown between the West and Russia over Ukraine, on the German economy. Many Central and Eastern European states are seen as dependent on trade with Russia.
Exports to EU states outside the eurozone leaped 15.9 per cent in July compared with the same month in 2013. This area includes nations such as Britain, Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
At the same time, German exports to so-called third countries such as the US and the world’s leading emerging economies, including China and India, climbed 7.2 per cent year-on-year.
Some encouraging signs were seen for the struggling 18-member eurozone. July exports to the currency bloc rose 6.2 per cent compared with the same month in 2013.
On a yearly basis, imports from non-eurozone EU states were up 10.3 per cent but were down 0.5 per cent from the eurozone and 1.8 per cent from third countries.
Year-on-year, total exports were 8.5 per cent higher in July while imports climbed 1 per cent.
GNA
